Value Assurance

Your program is governed
on time and cost.
Who governs the value?

Independent assurance that the business case survives delivery — for ERP, AI and major digital programs. From approval, through the decisions that quietly erode value, to benefits actually banked.

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%

of expected digital value is actually captured

McKinsey, 2024
%

of large projects land on budget, on time and with the promised benefits

Flyvbjerg, 16,000+ projects, 2023
%

of recent ERP initiatives will miss their original business case by 2027

Gartner
%

of companies have achieved AI value at scale

BCG, 2025
What value assurance is

Value Assurance is an independent discipline of protecting and proving value across the whole life of an investment.

Every major program has a PMO governing time, cost and scope, a QA function checking the solution works, and audit checking the controls. None of them owns the question the money was approved on — and the one closest to it reports to the person delivering. Value assurance sits outside the program and answers to the sponsor.

Question one

Are we still doing the right thing?

Does the investment still hold against the strategy, the market and its own business case — tested continuously, not once at approval.

Question two

Will this way of doing it produce the value?

Every design, scope, sourcing and sequencing decision traced back to the value drivers that justified the spend — and priced before it is committed.

Question three

Will the value survive the organisation?

Adoption, ownership and measurement built in, so benefits keep arriving after the program closes and the team disperses.

The number the board should see

Value at Risk, in dollars.

Programs report cost burn-down. Almost none report value burn-up beside it. The gap between the two curves is the earliest warning signal available — and the only one that translates directly into a decision.

We turn that gap into a live register: every threat to the business case, quantified, with an owner, a mitigation and a decision date. Not a RAG colour. A number.

Cumulative spend Value realised Value at Risk
Business case Build Go-live +12 months

Illustrative. On a live engagement both curves are fed by actual operational and financial data.

Our approach

Six layers. One unbroken thread from strategy to banked benefit.

01

Value architecture

A value tree where every benefit carries a metric, a data source, a measured baseline, a named owner and a date. Benefits that cannot survive this are removed from the case.

02

Assured business case

Ranges not point estimates. Reference-class forecasting, explicit disbenefits, whole-of-life run costs, and a confidence rating on every line.

03

Stage-gate assurance

Independent, evidence-based recommendations to the sponsor at each gate — proceed, proceed with conditions, pause or stop.

04

Continuous value tracking

A live value ledger fed by real operational data — process mining, transaction and asset data — not self-assessment.

05

Decision assurance

Every material trade-off tested against the value tree and priced in dollars before it is committed, not explained afterwards.

06

Realisation & sustainment

Post-go-live verification against baseline with a stated counterfactual, formal handover of benefit ownership, and findings fed into the next investment.

Where it applies

Same thread. Different value drivers.

The benefits are in the process, so that is where we measure.

ERP cases are built on process-level claims — faster close, lower cost-to-serve, fewer manual touches, better working capital. ERP programs are then governed at module and milestone level. The measurement never meets the promise.

83% of organisations that ran a genuine pre-implementation ROI analysis and had been live 12 months or more said the project met their ROI expectations. The rigour up front is most of the outcome.
Panorama Consulting Group, ERP Report
  • Baseline the process before the program touches it. Process mining on live transaction data gives a defensible "before" — cycle times, rework loops, touch counts, cost per transaction. Highest-return early move, most commonly skipped.
  • Treat customisation as a value decision, not a technical one. Each one priced for build cost, run cost, upgrade drag, and the benefit it protects or destroys.
  • Price the run. Licence uplift, cloud consumption, support model and upgrade cadence across the full case horizon — where net value quietly erodes.
  • Refuse to treat go-live as the finish line. Most ERP benefits land 6–24 months after cutover — precisely when the program has been disbanded.

Value that is probabilistic. Risk that is novel.

AI breaks the assumptions most value frameworks rest on. Output is probabilistic. Unit economics change with usage. And the failure mode is not that the pilot fails — it is that the pilot works and nothing changes.

Of 25 attributes tested, workflow redesign had the largest single effect on an organisation's ability to see EBIT impact from GenAI. Executive ownership was the governance factor most correlated with impact — present in only 28% of AI-using organisations.
McKinsey, State of AI
  • Pilot-to-production economics. Pilot cost per task is almost never production cost per task. Inference, retrieval, human review, monitoring and retraining modelled before scale-up is approved.
  • A real counterfactual. Measured against a control or pre-period baseline, so the claimed benefit survives an auditor rather than a demo.
  • Proportional agent governance. Autonomy graduated from observe, to advise, to act with approval, to act within guardrails — with the controls each rung actually requires. Around 75% of companies plan agentic deployment within two years; 21% report mature agent governance.
  • Alignment to what you will be asked about. NIST AI RMF, ISO/IEC 42001, Australia's Guidance for AI Adoption and AI Ethics Principles, APRA CPS 230 where relevant, and the EU AI Act for European exposure.

Wherever a business case outlives the team that wrote it.

The discipline does not change with the technology. Only the value drivers, the data source for the baseline, and the obligations you are assured against.

For public sector clients we work inside existing obligations — Commonwealth Gateway, the DTA assurance framework, the NSW Digital Assurance Framework, Infrastructure NSW's IIAF and Victoria's HVHR — sharpening the value evidence reviewers will test, rather than building a parallel process.
  • Asset management, EAM and digital twin. Availability, maintenance cost per unit, intervention avoidance and whole-of-life cost — assured against ISO 55000, ISO 19650 and BIM obligations.
  • Automation, BPM and RPA. Benefit per process net of exception handling and bot maintenance. The classic leaks: automating a process that should have been eliminated, and counting hours that never leave the cost base.
  • Cloud, platform and data investments. Run-cost reality against the migration case, and platform benefits traced to named consuming use cases that carry their own value lines.
  • Customer and citizen experience. Service outcomes tied to cost-to-serve, channel shift, first-contact resolution and demand reduction — measured, not surveyed.
Why it comes from outside

Assurance that also delivers is not assurance.

The delivery contract for the program we assure sits with someone else. That separation is the entire point: our finding stands free of any commercial consequence attached to it.

The independent review of a halted $2.8bn Commonwealth program found that letting the program select its own independent assurer "may limit the independent assurer's impartiality." Structural independence is not a nicety.

A value assurance function typically runs at a low single-digit percentage of program cost, and can be structured with a risk-shared component tied to assured outcomes rather than days consumed.

Embedded partner Independent gate reviewer Board adviser Reset & recovery Capability build
What we commit to
Benefits with a named owner, metric and measured baseline100% before approval
Business case lines that survive independent challengeEvery line rated
Value at Risk identified and priced in dollarsEvery governance cycle
Material decisions assessed for value impact before commitment100% above threshold
Post-go-live benefit verification against baselineAt 6 and 12 months
Cost of the assurance functionLow single-digit % of program

These are engagement commitments. Program-specific results are provided as references under NDA.

Where to start

Four ways in, depending on where the program is.

2–4 weeks

Value Assurance Diagnostic

A rapid independent read on a program already underway. Value tree reconstructed, benefits tested, leaks found, Value at Risk quantified.

Start here
4–6 weeks

Assured Business Case

Before the money is committed. Ranges, reference-class forecasting, disbenefits, run costs, confidence ratings, owners and baselines.

Enquire
Program duration

Embedded Value Assurance

A small independent team running gates, the value ledger, decision assurance and Value at Risk reporting through to realisation.

Enquire
3–5 weeks

Benefits Realisation Review

Post go-live. What was actually delivered, measured against baseline with a stated counterfactual — and a recovery plan for the gap.

Enquire
Common questions

Before you ask

Project assurance asks whether the program is being delivered properly. Value assurance asks whether what is being delivered will produce the value that justified the investment — and keeps asking after go-live, when most benefits actually arrive.

Benefits realisation management is a core component of it. Value assurance adds independence, stage-gate decision rigour, value testing at the level of individual delivery decisions, and challenge of the business case itself before it is approved.

Before the business case is approved — the cheapest value ever recovered is the value recovered before commitment. For a program already underway, the highest-return entry point is a diagnostic ahead of the next major gate.

It front-loads decisions rather than adding them. Programs with agreed value criteria decide faster, because the basis for deciding is already settled. The slow programs are the ones relitigating scope in month fourteen.

Yes, and it should. We align to your mandated gates rather than duplicating them, and strengthen the value evidence those reviewers ultimately assess.

Particularly to AI programs. The research is consistent that AI value is determined mainly by workflow redesign, executive ownership and measurement discipline rather than model choice — and those are precisely the things value assurance governs.

Find out what your program is really worth.

A diagnostic takes two to four weeks and tells you three things: whether the business case still stands, where value is leaking now, and what it will cost to stop it.